9 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT TIPS FOR 2019

1.  Be uber-safe in the first four to five rounds.

Whoever said you have to take risks to win, didn’t mean drafting injury-prone or unproven players in the early rounds. I get it. It’s boring to play it safe, and nobody makes comments about how great a pick is when it’s the obvious safe play. That’s okay. I’d rather look like a genius in September than March. That probably means no Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for you. It might mean you skip over Chris Sale for Corey Kluber or Justin Verlander. Maybe you try to wait out Juan Soto one extra round. The early rounds of a draft are not where you earn a profit. Use them for safe investments more likely to get you your money back. Save your upside plays for later.

2. Let your sleepers be sleepers.

Everybody has sleepers. Even those fantasy baseball snobs who say there is no such thing as a sleeper; they have sleepers. They just like to call them value plays or some other less cliche term. Whatever you call them, sleepers are players that may have big question marks, but you like them to greatly out-produce their draft cost. It’s a chance to make a nice profit in your draft. Profit is what wins leagues.

If you start reaching too far for your sleepers, though, you take away a lot of your profit even if that player breaks through. I still remember a perfect example of this from years ago. It was an NL-Only industry mock draft during the draft season of 2012. Jose Altuve was coming off a nice, but unspectacular 57-game debut (Yes, the Astros were in the NL then). The draft was going mostly as expected until someone (I honestly don’t remember who) drafted Altuve in the third round. Now Altuve went on to have a very nice year and probably returned his value, so some would say this guy nailed it. Smart fantasy owners know he cost himself a ton of value. He could have safely waited until the ninth round to draft Altuve and taken a more proven player in the third. So maybe he got third-round value out of Altuve, but his ninth-round pick was just a run of the mill ninth-round pick. It was a great call on the player. It was a terrible mistake as a draft pick.

3. Use a paper cheat sheet

But Fantrax and other draft sites show who’s been drafted and who hasn’t. Why the extra piece of paper? Two reasons. First, while it’s easy to see who is available overall, it’s not always easy to see how many draftable players are available at any one position. More importantly, though, you want a cheat sheet with your own rankings, because the default rankings for any site are going to conflict with your values. Your favorite end0game sleepers might be so buried on the site you forget all about them. Your cheat sheet will help you stay on top of the available player pool better and ensure you maximize value later in the draft. It’s ideal if you create your own cheat sheet with your own rankings, but feel free to use my Top 400 for 2019 if you want.

4. Don’t wait too long on first base

First base offers quite the conundrum in 2019. I’m not sure there’s a true elite bat in the bunch. Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, and Paul Goldschmidt are all very good, but they aren’t close to pushing any of the top outfielders when it comes to value. Normally when there’s not a crop of clear-cut elite players at the top of a position, I’d say you could wait. The problem with first base this year is you start getting to the question marks very early. Honestly, I feel decent with the top 5 or 6. After that, there are no guarantees. If you don’t grab the first baseman in the first four or five rounds you may be settling for a Yulieski Gurriel type.

5. Draft two top starting pitchers in the first four rounds

I covered it in a lot more detail in my article on 2019 Pitching Strategy, but the elite level starting pitchers are more valuable than ever. They are still throwing 200 innings or more and enjoying the full benefit of the swing and miss generation of MLB hitters. Meanwhile, all other starting pitchers are seeing fewer innings and subsequently fewer wins and a smaller share of the strikeouts. I compare it to the state of the running back in the NFL. The elite three-down backs are the most valuable commodity in fantasy football. Then there’s a bunch of mediocrities who add a little here and there.

6. Draft at least two good middle relievers in the late rounds

For many of the same reasons the elite starting pitchers have gained value, so have the really good middle relievers. I covered many of the reasons I’ll be using middle relievers even in mixed leagues in this article, but the big takeaway is that the gap between the bulk of starting pitchers and good middle relievers is getting smaller. The best part? These middle relievers are almost free!

7. You can wait on the middle infield

I remember the days when the middle infield was Derek, Alex, and Nomar, and then a bunch of garbage. It’s still nice if you can get Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, or Jose Altuve, but both shortstop and second base go 20 deep in useful players. If you don’t grab one of the top few at each position, you’re gonna be okay waiting.

8. Position scarcity is real; just don’t overreact

Position scarcity isn’t what it was in the days of the big three shortstops I mentioned previously, or when Piazza and Pudge were behind the plate, but it still exists. We just have to treat it differently. Back then it meant grabbing one of those scarce elite options to gain a huge advantage. Nowadays I’m not sure we have a huge advantage in any position. It’s more about not getting shut out of a position. So don’t reach on Gary Sanchez or J.T. Realmuto if they go too early. Just don’t wait until you’re looking at Tyler Flowers and Mitch Garver as your starting catchers.

9. Track the rosters of the two owners who come before you and after you

Most online drafts move too fast to meaningfully track rosters of the entire league and even in 12-team leagues, it’s very hard to predict which players will go off the board in between your picks. What you can do is try to keep an eye on the positional needs of the owners who draft in close proximity. It might help you decide between two players you’re targeting. For example, if you know the owners drafting before and after you already have two closers, you might wait on the closer you want and grab your second starting catcher. If you’re within a few slots of the turn (3rd-4th, 9th-10th) this really comes in handy.

 

Blog Source: FANTRAX HQ | 9 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT TIPS FOR 2019

No Comments

    Leave a reply